Who Will Challenge Federer in the 2010 Australian Open?

04 Jan 2010 by Hiland in Australian Open 2010

roger-federer-1Last year the rumbling doubts about Roger Federer began to stir just under the surface. Rafa Nadal’s successful 2008 season elevated him to the top spot on the Men’s Tour.

There were rumors that the great Roger Federer was considering retirement. When Nadal captured the 2009 Australian Open in five stirring sets from Federer, Roger seemed to run out of steam, losing the final set 6-2.

In defeat, Federer showed unusual emotion. Rafael Nadal just seemed too much for the 27 year old Swiss star. As great players do, Federer stayed the course, steadied the ship and committed himself to winning more Grand Slam tournaments that any player in history.

By the end of 2009, Roger had surpassed Pete Sampras and possessed 15 Grand Slam titles and remarkably has reached the semi-finals in the last 22 major tournaments. That is a record that may never be toppled.

Not only did the star regain his number one ranking but also fellow players often seemed in awe of his prowess.

Federer’s game seems perfectly suited for the grueling two-week format that is the standard of the Grand Slams. While other players wilt under the heat, media glare and fan excitement, Roger remains calm, collected and focused.

There is no reason to think that Federer will not collect more Grand Slam titles in 2010. The real question is, who will take the titles away.

Del Potro to Win in Melbourne

Juan Del Potro

Juan Del Potro

The most likely heir to the throne appears to be the lean and mean Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro.  Coming off a hot season where the 6’ 6” hard server won more than $4.7 million and won a career-high 54 matches against just 16 losses, Juan Martin proved that he can play on center court.  His dominant play in the 2009 U.S. Open where he cruised past Federer in the finals raised his confidence.  He continued his determined play and knocked Federer off again in the year final tour event.

All three of Del Potro’s 2009 championships were earned on hard courts.  Toward the end of 2009, Juan Martin seemed more comfortable on the big stage.  In the U.S. Open finals he carried the play and refused to be intimidated by Federer’s presence.  In the wake of the signature win, we think the five seed will be ready to handle the field, knock off Murray in the quarters and Federer in the semis before edging past Nadal in the finals in Australia.

Nadal Will Reach Finals

Rafa Nadal entered 2009 on top of the world and atop the tennis rankings.  After proving his abilities on hard surfaces as well as on the clay of Paris, Nadal certainly deserved his number one ranking.  Following his defeat of Federer in the Aussie finals, the sky seemed the limit for the competitive Spaniard.

Nadal is the type player that ties other competitors in knots.  He is the consummate retriever and his left-handed ground strokes provide disconcerting spin.  Nadal is a shotmaker with unsurpassed skills.  The question fro Nadal remains the condition of his flimsy knees.

As disappointing as 2009 was for Nadal, he still earned more than $6 million and compiled an impressive 66-14 won-lost record.  This stallion is far from dead but Del Potro brings too big a game to the table in the finals.

Djokovic and Murray Struggle

novak-djokovic3rd seeded Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open in 2008.  His impressive 78 –19 won-lost record in 2009 surpassed his Grand Slam performances.  In fact his performances in majors is puzzling.  The Serb seems to lack intensity and the two-week format wears on him.  Many competitors and fans question Djokovic’s heart.  When things go poorly for Novak, he seems unable to reverse the slide.  He reached only one semi-final in Grand Slams in 2009 and will most likely disappoint again this year.

Andy Murray is in the same boat.  Murray sports a robust 66 –11 2009 record.  Like Djokovic, he only reached one Major semi-final.  Murray appears overwhelmed on the big stage.  He is tough on himself and over a two-week event, he is unable to sustain a positive, winning disposition.  There are many more determined players on the tour.  Murray is now regarded as soft in the big tournaments.

Nikolay Davydenko Surprises

The 28-year old Ukrainian had a disappointing Grand Slam year, but finished the WTA season in strong fashion.  After winning the final tour event of 2009, Davydenko might be able to sustain the momentum and carry forward.  His final victory over Del Potro was pretty convincing.

Nikolay earned more than $3.6 million in 2009 and had 55 tour victories.  His major performances have been sub-par during his career.  Perhaps his newfound maturity will translate to major wins.

Monfils on Cusp

Gael Monfils is a longshot but his flamboyant style dazzles crowds and competitors alike.  The speedy Frenchman fills the stands and can play with anyone on the tour.  Thus far, his inability to sustain a two-week effort has been his downfall.  No matter where he is in the draw, Monfils is a player other players do not want to see in their bracket.

Hats Off To Soderling

25-year old Robin Soderling had his best tour year yet.  He performed well in the majors, reaching the finals in Paris, the 4th round at Wimbledon and the quarters in New York.  We expect Soderling to pull upsets.  Soderling definitely has the game to overcome either Djokovic or Murray.  If positioned properly, the 8 seed might start the year quickly.  Soderling climbed 5 notches in the rankings last year.  Look for him to move up more in 2010.  With the luck of the draw, he could well reach the semis in Melbourne.

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