The 2009 Australian Open Tennis Championship starts in January 2009, and picking the winner in the Men’s competition should be easy if you follow the past performances of the key players. Just like Horse Racing, picking winners is all about form, breeding, and conditions. Once in a while an outsider comes along, and everyone wishes they had bet on this long shot, but in reality the favourites win 45% of the time.

So from the Men’s draw let’s eliminate any chance of a long shot coming through. But if you want to take a risk, you might consider the kid from Argentine, Del Portro. Until Andy Murray beat him in the quarter final at the US Open he was the hottest player on the tour. The downside is his age and inexperience in a Grand Slam.
There’s really only four players that have a legitimate shot at the title, and theses four have separated themselves from the rest of the other players. They are of course, Nadal, the number 1 player, Federer the number 2, and the holder of so many records, Djokovic the number 3, and the defending champion, and the new kid on the block, Murray the number 4.

Follow along, take notes, and see how easy it is to pick the winner based on the nine months of their 2008 past performances. I’ll make two assumptions. First is that all four players remain healthy, and do show up to play, and second is that only the results of previous meetings on Hard Courts is considered.

Nadal lost to Murray in the US Open, he lost to Djokovic in the Western Masters and the Pacific life.
Federer lost Djokovic in the Australian Open, he lost to Murray at Dubai, and he lost to Nadal in Monte Carlo.
Djokovic lost Federer in the US Open, he lost Nadal in the Olympics, and he lost to Murray in the Western Masters, the Rogers Masters and in Cincinnati.

Murray lost Federer in the US Open, he lost to Nadal in the ATP Masters and in Toronto, and he lost to Djokovic in Montreal.

Is everybody clear now on who the winner is likely to be? Are you ready to put your money on such an easy choice, or do you need more statistics?

The Australian Open has always been the oddball of the Grand Slams. In the past many players have decided not to participate, including Nadal, but now he is Numero uno he most likely feels that he has an obligation to the sport to participate. Australia is a long way from home for all except the local players, and it is the first tournament of the season after most players have taken couple of weeks off. Some are not sharp, some are unfit, and some are simply overcome by the heat. Summer in Melbourne can be brutal, with temperatures that hover around the 100F mark.

NB. McEnroe has picked Andy Roddick!….but what does he know about tennis?