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Nadal-Federer Preview: Weakness As Strength

31 Jan 2009 by Matthew in Australian Open 2009

When Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer lock horns in their first hardcourt Grand Slam final, the biggest key to victory will be the ability to turn weaknesses into strengths. The nineteenth matchup between these two tennis titans will be defined by the attitudes and adjustments of the mighty Mallorcan and the sublime Swiss.

First, let’s look at the challenges facing Nadal on Sunday in Rod Laver Arena. The world No. 1–who will face Federer with a top ranking for the first time (Fed, in turn, will be playing Rafa with a “(2)” beside his name for the first time)–was going to have to shorten points in this would-be matchup, regardless of more specific circumstances. When placed on a hard surface–faster now than the grass of Wimbledon–Nadal lacks the time he enjoys on other surfaces. This is why Nadal has lost his last two hardcourt matches to Federer, in the 2006 and 2007 Masters Cup semifinals. If a so-called “Fedal” final ever materialized at the Australian or U.S. Open, Rafa had to know that shorter points and flattened-out forehands would need to be brought to the battle. Now, however, the world of hypotheticals has become the realm of reality, and so–in addition to the pure Xs and Os of the matchup–Nadal has to contend with his holistic well-being.

As the countdown to “Nadal-Federer XIX” (that’s a tribute to Super Bowl XLIII, which will be played 16 hours after Rafa and Fed do their thing in Australia) intensifies, the need for Rafa to drill his shots has become particularly obvious. On the night of February 1, 2009, the 22-year-old Spaniard is more aware than ever of the need to be aggressive from the ground, because his body and mind need to be engaged in this match from the moment the first ball is struck.

As physically taxing as his 5-hour, 14-minute semifinal classic against Fernando Verdasco proved to be, Nadal–the most physical player in men’s tennis–will compete for every point in a match of such pronounced magnitude. Nadal’s physical hunger shouldn’t be questioned, but what merits concern in the Rafa camp is the ability of the top seed to play a more offensive game on a fast surface, and thereby send a message to the formidable Swiss foe on the other side of the net. The mental side of this match is the truly daunting problem for Nadal, who–in addition to playing a grueling match on Friday night–also had to endure the mental strain of playing a countryman (Verdasco) whom he respects. Rafa openly admitted that, at love-40 in Verdasco’s final service game, he began to cry due to the overwhelming tension of the moment. The hard-fought win featured incredibly punishing tennis, but for one more day, the muscular No. 1 will be able to throw his body into the fray. The hard part for Rafa is to find the mental clarity needed to regroup from the emotions of the Verdasco match and execute a more forceful strategy against the world No. 2. Nadal will be able to run against Federer–his immense pride and relentless style won’t allow anything less–but if the Spaniard leaves balls short on the hard surface, the world-class ballstriker from Switzerland will make him pay, just as he did in the pair of Masters Cup collisions taken by Federer. It might be tempting to say that Rafa needs to keep points short for the sake of keeping his body fresh if the match goes deep into a fourth or fifth set, but the real reason Rafa needs to keep points short is that on hardcourts, the man with a 12-6 advantage in the head-to-head series is actually at a tactical disadvantage. Federer will receive a truer, lower bounce than anything he’d normally get at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, so Rafa’s normal strategy of hitting the high-kicking topspin forehand to Fed’s backhand can’t be relied upon quite as often in Australia. Rafa has to find openings early in points, and beat Federer to the punch in terms of hitting outright winners on shots that are anything less than solid. If Rafa can’t play the kind of game Verdasco used against him on Friday–namely, a higher-risk style that allows more errors in the attempt to rack up a lot of additional winners–he’ll find himself in trouble.

Now, we turn to the challenges facing Mr. Federer, who can claim a 14th Grand Slam title and tie Pete Sampras atop the all-time list with a win in this heavily-anticipated confrontation. The big challenge for Roger, as he faces his personal nemesis, is to be man enough to admit his own vulnerabilities in this matchup.

Federer has usually been content to hit a lot of backhands against Nadal. Realizing how easy it is for Nadal to spin that heavy forehand to his backhand corner, Federer has acknowledged the importance of shoring up his backhand wing. However, in the heat of match play, the willingness to hit backhands–understandable to a point–has become something of a harmful self-fulfilling prophecy for the Swiss. Federer has been so focused on the need to hit backhands against Rafa that he’s been unwilling to construct points that can feed his forehand. Some of Federer’s most vocal critics think that his biggest failing against Rafa has been a stubborn refusal to get to net, but the criticism that possesses real staying power is the view that Fed concedes far too many backhand rallies against the Nadal forehand. This paves the way for Roger’s new gameplan, which emerged in the latter sets of the 2008 Wimbledon final, arguably the greatest tennis match ever played.

In the final three sets of that epic encounter, Federer used his backhand down the line to the deuce court, which steered the ball to Rafa’s backhand corner and thereby set up the forehand. In a weird but real way, Federer gained strength by acknowledging his weakness. He lost that match, but his comeback gained him newfound respect in the tennis world. Sunday in Melbourne, that tactic–if used well–could deliver a piece of history, and erase much of the sting created by the loss in suburban London last July.

Nadal. Federer. Two giants possess incredible tennis strengths. Their matchup in Melbourne will therefore depend on how they handle their weaknesses.

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