Murray out of Shanghai; next stop: Australia
Andy Murray’s brilliant 2008 season ended a little bit prematurely when he lost to Nikolay Davydenko 7-5, 6-2 in the semifinals of the Masters Cup on Saturday. A herculean effort in a round-robin win over Roger Federer probably crippled Murray’s chances heading into the knockout stage. The Scot just did not have enough left in the tank.
While it means Murray is out of the tournament earlier than he would have liked, it also means his next stop in the Australian Open 2009.
Murray is currently even (approximately) with Rafael Nadal as the second favorite behind Roger Federer to capture next year’s first Grand Slam title. Plenty of fans, no doubt, think Murray is the absolute favorite to capture the trophy Down Under.
It’s not because of his Australian Open history. Murray lost in the first round of his maiden appearance in 2006, reached the fourth round in 2007, and fell in the first round again in 2008. In fairness to the Scot, he had to play eventual runner-up Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the opener this season.
Furthermore, Murray’s past history should have little to no bearing on his 2009 result, as he is a completely different player now than he was during any previous visit to Melbourne. Even though Murray lost to Davydenko, he deserves a break since he was clearly worn out from his epic win over Federer in round-robin play on Friday. Therefore, it is still easy to make an argument that the world No. 4 is the hottest player on the ATP Tour at the moment. He won consecutive Masters Series titles in Cincinnati and Madrid, reached the final of the U.S. Open, and went 3-0 in round-robin play this week before bowing out of Shanghai.
Murray has also established himself as a clutch Grand Slam performer, something he had not done prior to any of his Australian Open appearances. At Wimbledon this summer, he was down two sets and a break to Richard Gasquet and the Frenchman even served for the match during the third set. Murray, however, stormed back to post a memorable five-set win before reaching the quarterfinals, where he finally fell to Nadal. At the U.S. Open two months later, Murray got revenge against Nadal en route to the title match, where Federer got the best of him for the Swiss’ fifth straight championship in Flushing Meadows.
The hard courts of the Australian Open should also work in Murray’s favor. The Scot is a force on all surfaces, but the slow hard courts in Australia should be perfect for his extraordinary combination of offense and defense. They are slow enough so that huge servers will not be able to overpower Murray, and instead will be at the mercy of the Murray return, which is arguably the best in tennis. At the same time, they are fast enough for Murray’s lethal backhand to give more defensive players serious trouble. We saw that in a nutshell against Nadal in the U.S. Open semifinals.
More good news for Murray is that he should be seeded in the top four at the Australian Open 2009 and therefore will avoid Federer, Nadal, and Novak Djokovic at least until the final weekend. That would give Murray an outstanding chance of reaching the semifinals…at the very least. Can he win the whole thing? Most definitely. We have seen what happens when Murray gets hot. The question is can he pick up right where he left off in 2008 despite the two-month layoff during the off-season. The prediction here is that Federer, who has now lost to Murray twice in-a-row, will come out motivated to regain his No. 1 ranking next season. What better way to get that quest started than by getting some revenge on Murray? Depending on the draw, that will either take place in the Australian Open 2009 semifinals or final.
Stay tuned. It’s not far away.
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