Can 2008 Final 4 repeat at Australian Open 2009?
Round-robin play has concluded at the year-end Masters Cup and that means there are four men left standing after another long, grueling season in 2008: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Nikolay Davydenko, and Gilles Simon.
Will the Final 4 be able to repeat their performances at the Australian Open 2009 to become the last four at next season’s first Grand Slam? Let’s took a look at their chances.
Novak Djokovic
Current Ranking: 3
Australian Open history: 2005 first round, 2006 first round, 2007 fourth round, 2008 champion
Best Grand Slam result: Champion (Australian Open 2008)
Djokovic, of course, will go to Melbourne as the defending Australian Open champion. His confidence, by that time should, be definitely be restored following a recent late-season slide for a number of seasons. First, he is returning to the site of his greatest triumph. Second, he is in the Masters Cup semifinals as the No. 1 seed out of the gold group following round-robin play. Finally, none of the top players look that daunting heading into 2009. Roger Federer is no longer as dominant as he once was, world No. 1 Rafael Nadal has never been lights on hard courts and has never made it past the Australian Open semifinals, and Andy Murray has never won a Grand Slam. Furthermore, Djokovic is firmly entrenched in the Top 4 of the rankings, so will not play Federer, Nadal, or Murray at any point before the semifinals of the Australian Open 2009. The Serb should be counted on to make it back to the last four.
Andy Murray
Current Ranking: 4
Australian Open history: 2006 first round, 2007 fourth round, 2008 first round
Best Grand Slam result: Runner-up (U.S. Open 2008)
Murray’s Australian Open history is nothing to write home about, but he is a completely different player now than he was during any of his three previous appearances Down Under. Plus, he had to play eventual finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the first round this year. Right now, however, there is nobody hotter than Murray on the ATP right now. He won consecutive Masters Series titles in Cincinnati and Madrid, reached the final of the U.S. Open, and is now in the semifinals of the Masters Cup with an undefeated round-robin record. The Scot is a force on all surfaces, but the slow hard courts at the Australian Open should be perfect for his extraordinary combination of offense and defense. Like Djokovic, he will be seeded in the top four and therefore will avoid Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic at least until the final weekend. Anything less than a semifinal performance would be a major disappointment for Murray, and he is probably the favorite to win the entire thing.
Nikolay Davydenko
Current Ranking: 5
Australian Open history: 2001 second round, 2002 first round, 2003 first round, 2004 second round, 2005 quarterfinals, 2006 quarterfinals, 2007 quarterfinals, 2008 fourth round
Best Grand Slam result: Semifinals (four different occasions)
Davydenko has been one of the most consistent players in tennis the past four seasons, and it has showed at the Australian Open. He reached three straight quarterfinals between 2005 and 2007 and made it to the fourth round this season. For the most part Davydenko has struggled to beat the very top players, but he finally showed he is capable of winning huge titles when he hoisted the Masters Series Miami trophy earlier this year. The Russian drubbed Nadal in straight sets in the Miami title match. Davydenko slumped for much of the season, but he now finds himself in the semifinals of the Masters Cup. That should give him a piece of mind in the off-season and provide him with plenty of confidence heading into the Australian Open. The hard courts there should be perfect for the world No. 5 to make another deep run. Fast courts allow big servers to overpower Davydenko, while clay-court specialists can get the best of him on the dirt. One problem for Davydenko, however, is he is no longer a stalwart of the Top 3 or 4. Barring an early upset, he will have to play either Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, or Murray before the semifinals. Nonetheless, he still could have one more run left in him to the last four of a Grand Slam.
Gilles Simon
Current Ranking: 9
Australian Open history: 2006 third round, 2007 first round, 2008 first round
Best Grand Slam result: Third Round (four different occasions)
Simon’s history at the Australian Open (not to mention his entire Grand Slam history) does not bode well for his chances of reaching the Aussie Open semifinals next season. The Frenchman has never won more than two matches at any Grand Slam event. Nonetheless, Simon has only played in one (the 2008 U.S. Open) since becoming the “new” Simon, and in that tournament he had to play on-fire Juan Martin Del Potro in the third round. The “old” Simon was the player who was a relative no-name until the middle part of this season. The “new” Simon is the player who won a title in Indianapolis, reached the semifinals of the Masters Series Canada, reached the final of the Masters Series Madrid, and now finds himself in the semifinals of the Masters Cup. The slow hard courts of Melbourne should be perfect for Simon, who lives with his defense and can sometimes get overpowered by bigger hitters on fast hard courts and grass. Whether or not he can make it to the semifinals, however, probably will depend on the draw. He will be seeded in the top eight, meaning he won’t play one of the top four until the quarterfinals. Of the four, being in the same quarter as Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will give Simon the best chance of making the last four. Then again, he beat Federer twice in 2008, so who knows!
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