An early look at the women’s Australian Open 2009 odds
The 2008 WTA season wrapped up almost two weeks ago as Venus Williams went undefeated en route to capturing the year-end Sony Ericsson Championships.
What’s the next big stop for the women? The Australian Open 2009, of course. A one and a half month offseason provides ample time to discussing the upcoming Grand Slam, and there’s no better way to start than by discussing each of the top women’s chances to win the title.
Who are the smart choices? Who should be avoided at all costs? Let’s take a look.
Note: these odds are approximate, appearing to be the average of the all the betting sites that are out there.
Women’s
Serena Williams: 3 to 1
You’re probably not getting enough bang for your buck here, and that says more about the state of the women’s game than it does about Serena Williams. There are just a lot of players who have chances to win Grand Slams nowadays. The Williams sisters are not as dominant as they once were, Justine Henin is no longer around, and the WTA Tour as a whole is so much deeper than it used to be. I’m not saying Serena should not be the favorite to win the Australian Open; I’m just saying 3 to 1 odds are probably too low to entice a bet out of me. She lost in the quarterfinals this year to Jelena Jankovic and ended the season with an emphatic loss at the hands of Venus at the Sony Ericsson Championships. Still, Serena enjoyed a solid stretch in which she won doubles titles at Wimbledon and the Olympics, finished runner-up to Venus at Wimbledon, and won the U.S. Open. She still has the talent to be dominant at times, but I just don’t know if it’s all going to come together Down Under.
Venus Williams: 6 to 1
Now we’re talking. There should not be such a discrepancy between the Williams sisters’ odds; especially not with the way Venus ended the season. She won Wimbledon, went out in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open only because she had to play Serena in the quarters (she lost in two epic tiebreakers), and she was in stunning form as she took the season-ending Sony Ericsson Championships title. Venus will be looking to reverse her 2008 Australian Open fortunes, as she went down to Ana Ivanovic in the quarters. Right to, it looks to me like there is a much better than 6 to 1 chance that Venus wins it all in Melbourne.
Maria Sharapova: 8 to 1
Don’t touch this. Sharapova has not played since early August due to injury, missing the U.S. Open, Wimbledon, the Sony Ericsson Championships, and everything else. It remains to be seen just how she will look when she arrives in Australia. Her first few matches of the season will reveal a lot, but right now anything dealing with Sharapova is a risk. That said, she was absolutely awesome in winning the Australian Open 2008. The Russian did not lose a single set en route to the title and not even one set went to a tiebreaker! Will a return to the scene of her triumph restore her form? There’s a chance, but right now the probability is not a good one.
Ana Ivanovic: 9 to 1
Ivanovic reached the final of the Australian Open 2008, won the title in Indian Wells, and won her first Grand Slam at the French Open 2008. After that, however, the end of the season saw a brutal slump for the Serb (other than a title in Linz). A two-month off-season should be able to get Ivanovic back on track, but only time will tell. Obviously she is capable of winning Down Under, because we have seen she is capable of getting on significant hot streaks at the biggest events in tennis. With 9 to 1 odds, action might be a good idea…. But not with too much confidence.
Jelena Jankovic: 10 to 1
You would think the No. 1 player in the world getting the fifth best odds is clear-cut call for action. Not so fast. Jankovic is ranked No. 1 despite never having won a Grand Slam. The Serb did, however, reach the final of the U.S. Open 2008, so that should give her some confidence heading into Melbourne. Still, it’s hard to like the chances of someone who has never captured a major title.
Dinara Safina: 14 to 1
Sure thing. I don’t mean to win the tournament; I mean Safina at 14 to 1 odds. We saw what happens when Safin gets on a roll (case and point: the second half of 2008). Marat Safin’s little sister won titles in Los Angeles and Montreal then reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open and the final of the Olympics. The Russian has never quite put it all together at a Grand Slam, but the upcoming Australian Open sounds like the perfect place to start.
Other contenders
30 to 1: Elena Demetieva and Vera Zvonareva
With those kinds of odds, it’s a good idea to throw some game at both of these contenders, especially Dementieva. She has never won a Grand Slam, but she won the Olympics this summer and that should give her tons of confidence heading into Australia. If Dementieva ever improves her serve, she has multiple Grand Slam titles potential, because she is arguably the best woman from the back of the court. Zvonareva showed off her potential by going undefeated en route to the Sony Ericsson Championships title match. The question with her, not to much unlike Dementieva, is her mental game. Can she handle the pressure of a final weekend of a Grand Slam? Probably not, but there’s a chance, and that chance is better than 30 to 1.
35 to 1: Caroline Wozniacki and Svetlana Kuznetsova
I don’t like either one of these women to win a Grand Slam title anytime soon, but with 35 to 1 odds it at least might be worth considering. Wozniacki is still a teenager and she showed that she is a future major winner by getting hot this summer, including winning a title in New Haven. Kuznetsova is a former Grand Slam winner (U.S. Open) so she always has to be given a chance. The Russian has tailed off a bit recently, but she probably has one more stellar year left in her.
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