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An early look at the women’s Australian Open 2009 odds

19 Nov 2008 by Ricky in Australian Open 2009 Betting

Serena WilliamsThe 2008 WTA season wrapped up almost two weeks ago as Venus Williams went undefeated en route to capturing the year-end Sony Ericsson Championships.

What’s the next big stop for the women? The Australian Open 2009, of course. A one and a half month offseason provides ample time to discussing the upcoming Grand Slam, and there’s no better way to start than by discussing each of the top women’s chances to win the title.

Who are the smart choices? Who should be avoided at all costs? Let’s take a look.

Note: these odds are approximate, appearing to be the average of the all the betting sites that are out there.

Women’s

Serena Williams: 3 to 1
You’re probably not getting enough bang for your buck here, and that says more about the state of the women’s game than it does about Serena Williams. There are just a lot of players who have chances to win Grand Slams nowadays. The Williams sisters are not as dominant as they once were, Justine Henin is no longer around, and the WTA Tour as a whole is so much deeper than it used to be. I’m not saying Serena should not be the favorite to win the Australian Open; I’m just saying 3 to 1 odds are probably too low to entice a bet out of me. She lost in the quarterfinals this year to Jelena Jankovic and ended the season with an emphatic loss at the hands of Venus at the Sony Ericsson Championships. Still, Serena enjoyed a solid stretch in which she won doubles titles at Wimbledon and the Olympics, finished runner-up to Venus at Wimbledon, and won the U.S. Open. She still has the talent to be dominant at times, but I just don’t know if it’s all going to come together Down Under.

Venus WilliamsVenus Williams: 6 to 1
Now we’re talking. There should not be such a discrepancy between the Williams sisters’ odds; especially not with the way Venus ended the season. She won Wimbledon, went out in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open only because she had to play Serena in the quarters (she lost in two epic tiebreakers), and she was in stunning form as she took the season-ending Sony Ericsson Championships title. Venus will be looking to reverse her 2008 Australian Open fortunes, as she went down to Ana Ivanovic in the quarters. Right to, it looks to me like there is a much better than 6 to 1 chance that Venus wins it all in Melbourne.

Maria SharapovaMaria Sharapova: 8 to 1
Don’t touch this. Sharapova has not played since early August due to injury, missing the U.S. Open, Wimbledon, the Sony Ericsson Championships, and everything else. It remains to be seen just how she will look when she arrives in Australia. Her first few matches of the season will reveal a lot, but right now anything dealing with Sharapova is a risk. That said, she was absolutely awesome in winning the Australian Open 2008. The Russian did not lose a single set en route to the title and not even one set went to a tiebreaker! Will a return to the scene of her triumph restore her form? There’s a chance, but right now the probability is not a good one.

Ana Ivanovic: 9 to 1
Ivanovic reached the final of the Australian Open 2008, won the title in Indian Wells, and won her first Grand Slam at the French Open 2008. After that, however, the end of the season saw a brutal slump for the Serb (other than a title in Linz). A two-month off-season should be able to get Ivanovic back on track, but only time will tell. Obviously she is capable of winning Down Under, because we have seen she is capable of getting on significant hot streaks at the biggest events in tennis. With 9 to 1 odds, action might be a good idea…. But not with too much confidence.

Jelena Jankovic: 10 to 1
You would think the No. 1 player in the world getting the fifth best odds is clear-cut call for action. Not so fast. Jankovic is ranked No. 1 despite never having won a Grand Slam. The Serb did, however, reach the final of the U.S. Open 2008, so that should give her some confidence heading into Melbourne. Still, it’s hard to like the chances of someone who has never captured a major title.

Dinara Safina: 14 to 1
Sure thing. I don’t mean to win the tournament; I mean Safina at 14 to 1 odds. We saw what happens when Safin gets on a roll (case and point: the second half of 2008). Marat Safin’s little sister won titles in Los Angeles and Montreal then reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open and the final of the Olympics. The Russian has never quite put it all together at a Grand Slam, but the upcoming Australian Open sounds like the perfect place to start.

Other contenders

30 to 1: Elena Demetieva and Vera Zvonareva
With those kinds of odds, it’s a good idea to throw some game at both of these contenders, especially Dementieva. She has never won a Grand Slam, but she won the Olympics this summer and that should give her tons of confidence heading into Australia. If Dementieva ever improves her serve, she has multiple Grand Slam titles potential, because she is arguably the best woman from the back of the court. Zvonareva showed off her potential by going undefeated en route to the Sony Ericsson Championships title match. The question with her, not to much unlike Dementieva, is her mental game. Can she handle the pressure of a final weekend of a Grand Slam? Probably not, but there’s a chance, and that chance is better than 30 to 1.

35 to 1: Caroline Wozniacki and Svetlana Kuznetsova
I don’t like either one of these women to win a Grand Slam title anytime soon, but with 35 to 1 odds it at least might be worth considering. Wozniacki is still a teenager and she showed that she is a future major winner by getting hot this summer, including winning a title in New Haven. Kuznetsova is a former Grand Slam winner (U.S. Open) so she always has to be given a chance. The Russian has tailed off a bit recently, but she probably has one more stellar year left in her.

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Early advice on Australian Open 2009 odds

17 Nov 2008 by Ricky in Australian Open 2009 Betting

Rafael NadalThe 2008 ATP season (not including Davis Cup) concluded on Sunday at the Masters Cup and that leaves tennis fans wit two options. One: feel sorry for themselves that the season is over and go one and a half months with nothing to do in terms of professional tennis. Two: start getting excited for the Australian open 2009!

As for me, I choose the latter. And perhaps an early look at the Australian open odds-to-win will convince all the other tennis fanatics out there to do the same.

Note: these odds are approximate, appearing to be the average of the all the betting sites that are out there.

Men’s

Roger Federer: 2 to 1
I like this a lot right now. For several years prior to this year’s French Open, you could rarely get odds at anything better than even money on Federer at any Grand Slam outside of Roland Garros. Now, of course, things have changed with Federer not quite as dominant and contenders like Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray really asserting themselves. Still, Federer had mono during the Australian open 2008 (and beyond), to that damaged his chances of winning a fourth title Down Under. There’s no reason to think Federer won’t be 100 percent when he heads to Melbourne this time around. When you’re dealing with a healthy and hungry (to get back his No. 1 ranking) Federer, I’ll take 2 to 1 odds in a hard-court tournament any day.

Rafael Nadal: 7 to 2
For now I would not touch this one. Nadal has never won any of the two hard-court Grand Slams (Australian Open and U.S. Open) and he has never even made it past the semifinals at either one. It’s hard to imagine that changing when Nadal is not at 100 percent physically. Knee tendinitis crippled the end of his otherwise-incredible 2008 campaign, and with tendinitis, you never know when it’s going to subside. Obviously Nadal’s health with be the sole dictator of his updated odds as the Australian Open draws nearer, but right now 7 to 2 is far from safe.

Andy Murray: 4 to 1
Yes, please. A lot of fans probably consider Murray to be the favorite right now. He won Masters Series titles in Cincinnati and Madrid and seemed poised to end the season with a Masters Cup trophy, but playing three hours against Federer (in a win) damaged those chances. Still, Murray concluded 2008 as the hottest player on tour and he should come out of the gates firing in 2009…and eager to reverse his fate of a first-round loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at this year’s Aussie Open.

Novak Djokovic: 5 to 1
Before the Masters Cup, such odds would have been abhorrent. Now, however, Djokovic definitely appears to have a fighting chance of successfully defending his 2008 Aussie crown. Keep your enthusiasm tempered, however, as the Serb did not face the toughest competition en route to the Shanghai title. For much of the second half of 2008, Novak Djokovic lost when he had to face the big boys (Federer at the U.S. Open, Murray in Cincinnati, Tsonga on three different occasions during the indoor season). That said, it’s always a great feeling to return to the site of your greatest triumph and that will help Djokovic’s efforts next January.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 12 to 1
Bettors who like to take risks should get all over this one. We saw at the Australian Open 2008 (and again at the Masters Series Paris) what happens when Tsonga gets hot. He is almost impossible to stop. Furthermore, the Frenchman loves the big stages of tennis and he is not afraid to go up against the top players, which he will have to do in order to win a Grand Slam title. Obviously Tsonga is a longshot, but if he is still healthy come January (and he should be following the off-season), 12 to 1 odds are more than enough to convince action.

Juan Martin Del Potro: 33 to 1
It’s still probably too soon for the 20-year-old to really break out at a Grand Slam. He reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open this year, but he has never done better than that at any of the four Majors. Juan Martin del Potro can catch fire, as we saw this summer when he won four straight tournaments in between Wimbledon and the French Open, so putting at least something down on 33 to 1 odds might be a good idea. Don’t expect it to bear fruit, however. The 6’6’’ Argentine is probably one more year away from true greatness.

Other contenders

40 to 1: Andy Roddick and Ernests Gulbis
Take Roddick if you are inclined to take one of the two. He is a Grand Slam champion (2003 U.S. Open) and he still has some good years left in him. Gulbis has as much talent as anyone on tour, but rarely has he put it together (he did for brief stretches at the 2007 U.S. Open and 2008 French Open). Based on his past history (albeit a short one), it’s surprising to see Gulbis as the sixth or seventh favorite to win the Australian Open. Quarterfinals? Sure, there is a fine chance of that if he gets a favorable draw? Champion? No sir. Not yet.

50 to 1: Nikolay Davydenko, Gilles Simon, David Nalbandian
What I find interesting about this is that of the three, I think Simon has the best chance of reaching the semifinals. But of the three, I think he has the smallest chance of winning the whole tournament. Why? Well, it’s not that complicated at all. Simon is as consistent as they come; you know what you are going to get from him every time he takes the court. Davydenko and Nalbandian are hit or miss. They can be incredible (see Nalbandian’s end of 2007 and Davydenko’s 2008 title at the Masters Series Miami), but they can also be terrible. They can lose first round at the Australian Open 2009, yet they can also go all the way (Nalbandian has a far better chance of winning it all, however, than Davydenko). Simon will almost certainly survive the first week, but his past history at Grand Slams (never past the fourth round) suggests that he is not yet ready for a major breakout.

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Australian Open 2009 Betting

15 Oct 2008 by Hiland in Australian Open 2009 Betting

Tennis betting adds to the thrills and excitement provided by the professional tennis circuit. Professional tennis players compete throughout the year so the tennis betting season is long and loaded with exciting possibilities. Tennis fans know their game, know the player statistics and tendencies and use that information in placing timely wagers. Tennis betting tends to be less complicated than team sports betting. Without team chemistry to consider, bettors can focus on the individual and the individual’s statistics to formulate the best wager.

Australian Open Tennis Betting

Tennis betting should evaluate the 5 key areas that affect every match. Successful tennis betting starts with the bettor becoming familiar with the players. World rankings help, but it is important to know how players match up in head-to-head competition. These track records are available online and in print. It should include careful scrutiny of these one-on-one prior performances.

Professional tennis events are contested on either grass, clay, hard court or carpeted surfaces. Each surface affects the speed and style of play. Clay courts, such as used in the French Open, are the slowest of these surfaces. The grass at Wimbledon, is the most traditional surface, but is often irregular. Some professional players prefer slower surfaces, while other players have developed styles better suited for the quicker, faster-paced surfaces. When betting on tennis, the bettor should know the surface and the player’s record on that particular surface. Players with hard serves and power strokes usually dominate the hard decks while steady ground strokes and conditioning get good results on the slower surfaces.

When betting on tennis, the successful bettor does their research. Player profiles and records are updated at the conclusion of each match. Bettors must always know current trends and patterns. Using statistics in formulating a wager works. Successful tennis bettors know forced error trends, ratio of successful first serves, percentage of second serves won and other relevant statistics.

During the course of the year long tennis season, all players hit peaks and valleys. The grueling professional tennis season wears on even the most accomplished player. Some touring players weary during the course of the extensive travel. Winning tennis betting factors in all the current trends, all past performances and the player’s recent physical condition.

There are very few other betting opportunities where results are based on individual prowess and athleticism. Prudent tennis wagers are based on up-to-date statistics gathered by today’s excellent online information centers. The player’s physical condition reports are readily available. Your next successful wager could well ride on your ability to gather information and structure that input into the correct wager.

Tennis Betting Types

There are four types of tennis bets. The successful bettor will use the accumulated information and select the appropriate tennis betting type.

Match Bet

The match bet is the most preferred tennis bet. With each match bet, there is a favorite and an underdog. The handicapper established a betting line and the bettor makes his play.

For example, in a match between Venus Williams and Ana Ivanovic on a grass surface, the match bet line is set as -150 Williams and +250 Ivanovic. Williams is a heavy favorite. Match bet lines reflect $100 events. So, if the bettor wagered $150 on Williams and Venus was victorious, the bettor would profit $100. On the other hand, if the bettor chose the underdog and wagered $100 on Ivanovic and Ana was victorious, the bettor would recoup the original $100 wager and collect the profit of $250.

Some gaming sites post odds lines on match bets. For example, Williams could be posted a 3/5 favorite and Ivanovic could be posted as an 8/5 underdog. With this line, the bettor can wager $50 on Williams to profit $30, or can bet $50 on Ivanovic to profit $80.

Experienced tennis experts always seek the upset. 2008 was marked by surprising upsets in both the Men’s and Women’s events. As the season unwound, young players hit their stride. Crowds warmed to the new vitality and these upstarts drew increased energy from newfound fan bases. The end-of-year rankings looked totally revamped from the beginning of the season. Along the way upset bettors had their day.

Set Betting

Sets betting is the second of the four tennis betting types. Sets betting is similar to an over-under football or basketball bet. The handicapper establishes a line and the bettor opts for over the sets line or under the sets line. In the Williams-Ivanovic match mentioned above, the handicapper might establish Williams as a -1.0 -200 favorite and Ivanovic as the + 0.5 + 275 underdog. If the bettor wagers $200 on Williams and Williams wins by more than 1.0 sets the profit is $100. If the bettor wagers $100 on Ivanovic and Ana wins the match or loses the match by less than 1.0 set, the bettor wins $275.

Games Betting

The third of the tennis betting types is called Games Betting. Games betting is interesting. Again using the Williams-Ivanovic match Games betting, the handicapper has established a line that reads Williams -2.0 -140, Ivanovic +2.0 +120. In this scenario, the bettor can wager $140 on Williams laying off or giving 2.0 games. Games betting is determined by the total number of games won in the match, but the player does not have to win the match. For example Williams could win the first set 6-0, and then lose two sets 6-7, 5-7. Williams has won 17 games. Ivanovic has won the match but only 14 games. In games betting, Williams is the victor. If the Bettor wagered $140, the bettor will profit $100.

1st set wager

A fourth tennis betting type, the 1st set wager is a popular play. The line might look like: Williams 8/13 – Ivanovic 6/5. If the bettor wagers $130 on Williams and Venus wins the first set, the bettor profits $80. If the bettor wagers $100 on Ivanovic and Ana wins the first set, the bettor profits $120.

Savvy tennis betting requires homework and money management discipline. Many tennis bettors like to play the underdogs. The world of professional tennis is filled with talented Men’s and Women’s players. Every match is hard fought. It has become increasingly difficult to dominate today’s tennis events. There are profits to be made by informed bettors.

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